FC 24 Millionaire #3
The Rise and Fall of Joelinton
What Happened?
The thought process described in FIFA 23 Millionaire #2 lead to a lot of people investing in Joelinton's gold card, he was by far the cheapest card the received a Ones To Watch card. He rose prior to the promo starting due to the fact he was a 'no risk' investment. When the OTW promo started, instead of rising even more, he dropped back to the price he was before the hype.
Why Did It Not Work?
There were two main reasons why the Joelinton investment didn't make a profit. The first reason was that he was heavily overinvested. He had already been bought prior to the promo starting and they had made him rise already by almost 100%
(from 900 coins to 1.7k).
When the event started, people began to sell their Joelintons. Because there were so many investors, their sell-off replaced the missing supply of his gold card from packs.
In case study #2 we worked out that:
Low/No Supply + High Demand → Price Rises
Due to the vast amount of Joelintons stored in clubs by players, there was now a massive supply, when people started to sell, they undercut each other causing the price to drop. The other side is whether he actually had a 'high demand'.
For this we need to look at his positives. His rating isn’t very high at 78. In the Premier League alone there are 23 different
strikers with a rating of between 77-79. In Joelinton's case, we even had Wesley who had the same nationality/position/league and a superior rating who he was around 900 coins at the time. Therefore, even if Joelinton was required for an SBC, there was no reason to buy him for 1.7k, this would show cheaper options in places like FUTBIN solutions too.
Conclusion:
High Supply + Low/No Demand → Price Drops.
What Can We Learn For FC 24?
As already explained in the previous, we don't know 100% if out of pack investing will even be a thing this year. If it is, remember this:
• Be very cautious about investing in cards that have already risen a lot over a short amout of time. That is never usually a good time to invest because whatever the investment is, you are more than likely buying cards at a buy price that is the initial purchasers sell price, for you to break even, it has to go up by 5% to cover EA tax.
• Always check how sought after a card is. If it’s not rare and there are cheaper alternatives, the investment will most likely not make a profit.
• The only way you can benefit from this is to invest early. This is not something that we would recommend as you are solely depndent on the hype but if you are going to invest, make sure you do it early before the majority of investors buy.
• Please note, not every out of pack investment works. Don’t invest blindly in cards that go out of packs!
If gold cards actually don't go out of packs and real out of pack investing doesn't work anymore, we can actually learn something else from this:
• The rise in the hype of a gold card before the special version even gets released is mainly caused by casual players
• It will take weeks, maybe even months until casual players stop hyping gold cards up that will soon get a special card, it maight even never stop
• We can benefit from this through buying early and then selling into the hype to the casual players • Going back to Joelinton example, this would mean, to buy him early for 900 and then sell into the for 1.7k
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